Will TiVo Destroy Ad-Supported TV?

windowpain writes "According to a column in Television Week, the increasing popularity of digital video recorders will actually cause a decline in ad revenues in the next few years. 'The rollout of DVR-type technology ... will reach critical mass with 11 percent penetration of U.S. television households by 2005 and 15 percent by 2006...As a result, five-year earnings growth for TV station groups could fall from as much as 10 percent to as low as 4 percent.' Why? DVR users skip at least two-thirds of commercials and the 'collective impact represents a threat to revenue and cash flow growth that cannot be offset ... Fifteen percent DVR penetration implies that 9.1 percent of all ads would not be watched and that advertisers would be overpaying by 9.1 percent, or $6.6 billion as calculated from projected 2006 total ad revenues of $72 billion.' And another business model goes down in flames."

Ironically

[ObviousGuy]

I find that skipping the programs to get to the commercials to be more interesting than the other way around.

Will TiVo Destroy Ad-Supported TV?

[Anonymous Coward]

Oh God, I hope so.

Here we go again

[PowerBert]

Tivo III ( Rise of the AAA )

Coming to a court near you soon, Tivo3 "The rise of the Advertising Association of America". When technology threatend their business model they stood up and hired lawyers.

One member if the AAA was quoted as saying "Recording to DVR boxes is a clear breach of copyright", "We will be suing selected individuals who record as many as 5 programmes per week". It is rumoured that the AAA will soon be licensing TV shows under a GPL like license. It will be illegal to view any programme unless the adverts are also made available in full. Any modification to a show must also include a copy of these adverts.

Another source commented "We can clearly show evidence of removing ads from our programmes. Not only is this in breach of our license, but we believe it is anti-constitutional and breaks the terms of the DMCA."

Re:Is this a good thing?

[Wanderer2]

Hurra for reality; You can leave the room and get a snack and there is no fscking thing they can do about it!

"Open the living room door, HAL."

"I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that."

Re:The only TV i watch is in DVD form.

[malignatus]

I ussally just rent the first season on DVD, if it's good, me and my girlfriend rent the next, and so on.

That's exactly what I do, except I "borrow" them from a friends I suddenly met over the Internet.

In other news:

[Anonymous Coward]

Visiting the toilet during peak time advetising could lose TV stations millions!

Re:Is this a good thing?

[mikerich]

(116? Has it gone up about ten quid recently?)

Five Pounds a couple of weeks ago.

Which was WELL SPENT - because now there are even more chances to see that advert for Freeview starring Alan Titchmarsh.

And don't worry if you miss them on BB1, you'll be able to catch the advert again on BBC2, on BBC3 ON BBC1, BB4 ON BBC1, BBC Radio 1, 2, 3 and 4...

Best wishes,
Mike.

Re:What, like movies?

[CGP314]

Personally, I've gotten very good at filtering advertising...

And by filtering I'm sure you mean 'I watched the above movies but couldn't tell you what they were ads for'.

Re:Nope

[cioxx]

Somehow I can't envision how they could manage to place products in sitcoms and miniseries which take place during WWII, 70's, or any other period than present time. But given the desperation of the industry to generate further revenue, integrity of shows would be ruined for the sake of selling crap to viewers.

Here are some things you should expect from rampant product placement:

(CBS) Moses Miniseries - Moses comes down the mountain holding a PocketPC 2003 PDA with 10 Commandments, then uses OnStar GPS navigation system to get directions out of the desert.
(NBC) Hitler Movie - During his final hours in the bunker, Hitler takes 2 50mg Zoloft tablets to make him feel better and deal with depression.
(ABC) That 70's Show - The gang logs on the internet via AOL 9.0 to find a good deal on mortgage through Ditech.com
(FOX) Civil War Special - Lincoln delivers Gettisburg Address in GAP jeans.

As you can see, it's not a catch-all solution. Of course, this could potentially limit programs not concurrent to our time or boost the number of futuristic sci-fi shows. Either way, product placement isn't the answer to everything.

Current model of advertising just isn't efficient enough, and horribly outdated on top of that. There is no godly reason, why I, a single 20-something male, should endure barrage of commercials dealing with vaginal hygiene products or senior life insurance plans. The TV advertising is reminiscent of e-mail Spam. Throw enough crap out there and something will stick with the target demographic which is likely to consider purchasing those products.

Re:Ironically

[nsebban]

ok, then perhaps it's time you try skiping both programs and commercials :)

Re:I'll be back - at Pizza Hut!

[drdale]

Maybe Papa John's would pay for a shootout scene where everyone in a Pizza Hut gets slaughtered.

Re:I don't get it?

[AKnightCowboy]

It's called changing the channel until the commercial is over!

Don't you know that you're essentially stealing that programming by not watching the commercials? Just like copyright infringement is theft, so is skipping commercials. See, in our new enlightened society dominated by our mass-media overlords, anything that fails to generate revenue for them is called theft.

Re:What, like movies?

[CAIMLAS]

Yes, of course it works. American culture is completely shaped by the movie and TV industries; you think that advertising doesn't seap through?
Movies and TV have been successfully 'advertising' lifestyles (and their accompanying trinkets and trends) for years and years - much longer than the current "lifestyle" adverts that we've seen in the last 5 years or so (Mt. Dew being a big "lifestyle" brand). Unlike traditional ads (generally), however, TV and movies get you involved in the plot, characters, and situations, thus increasing your desire all the more - unlike most ads, which we tune out (and thus why advertisers try their damnedest to create witty ads). Someone is much more likely to buy a Desert Eagle handgun if Lara Croft is using it in the movie (sweet! a chick with a gun! I want one just like that! maybe it'll make me just like her/find a girl just like her), than if they were to see a subsequent ad on TV or as a trailer advertising the gun itself.

The most obvious examples that you'll see almost everywhere are: clothing, soda, furniture (if I buy the furniture on The Cosby Show, I'll be witty and have a perfect family), and the like. Some specifics off the top of my head:

Terminator (and others like it): leather jackets and other things 80's.

The Matrix - leather catsuits, trenchcoats, sunglasses, technology appeal, etc.

James Bond - cars, watches, pens, cologne, beer, soda, women (woot!), sex, etc.

Fast and the Furious (I and II): cars, performance parts, soda, clothing, sex

Wayne's World I and II: Pepsi, Doritos, etc. (done ingeniously, I might add)

even LotR: trinkets from the movies, books, soundtracks

popups?

[matth]

Guess it's time to start having popup ads on TV... I can see it now.... in the middle of a TV show, all of a sudden a chevy truck bursts through the screen.. totally obscuring what you are trying to watch and making this horrid crashing sound.. then it drives back and forth for a bit and finally comes to rest in the upper top corner for the remainder of the show.

Hrmm.. I could swear I've seen this idea some place before!

Re:What, like movies?

[CAIMLAS]

That's because the HIV ad likely wasn't portrayed in a positive manner. You'd be considering, though, if it was introduced in this fashion:

Viciously hot babe in a bikini runs/bounces onto an all-white screen in slow motion

Hot babe: Hi, my name's Bambi. I've got HIV. Do you know how I got it?

Bambi pauses

Bambi: I had mad hot animal sex with an ordinary, greasy geek, just like you, and he gave it to me. *giggle*

Bambi bounces off the screen

fade to black

white lettering appears on the screen:

HIV: Find A Hot Model and Let Her Give It To You

Advertising destroyed advertising-supported TV

[swb]

"When I was a kid"(TM) in the early 1970s, there was much less advertising on television and watching television wasn't as obnoxious as it was. Even network-broadcast movies only had a 2-3 commercial breaks per hour, with long stretches of movie in between.

There's a lot more advertising on TV, and a lot more obnoxious advertising gimmicks. I can't help but think that if TV advertising was the same way it was in the 1960s and early 1970s, the idea of paying for a DVR wouldn't be as appealing as the advertising wasn't as obnoxious, it was more of a fair bargain.

But then there's some questions about content, too -- broadcast television used to make some weighty programming. Now it sucks, and if you want anything interesting, you need to have HBO or Showtime for drama, and Tivo and 400 other channels for anything else.

Re:Nope

[iantri]

And cleaning up the heads would get kind of messy.. [techtv.com]

Re:Nope

[bjpirt]

(CBS) Moses Miniseries - Moses comes down the mountain holding a PocketPC 2003 PDA with 10 Commandments, then uses OnStar GPS navigation system to get directions out of the desert.

Surely it would be a tablet pc

Re:Nope

[nodata2]

Sauron drinks Pepsi.

Re:Nope

[Condor7]

My favorite example of this is Nexium. I saw an advertisement for this product, and the sum total of the information I got from the ad is that it is a little purple pill that I should ask my doctor about. They never bothered to mention what the product is or what it does.

Re:What, like movies?

[PainKilleR-CE]

Come on, whenever I want to hack an alien race's navigation, command, & control systems I use the same Mac that I used to hack a Gibson from a pay phone.

Ob "History of the World" Reference

[Anonymous Coward]

I was thinking of 3 tablet PCs, but one of them BSODs.

Re:What, like movies?

[s0l0m0n]

South Park was right.

Aids is funny now.

Re:What, like movies?

[Scrameustache]

Someone is much more likely to buy a Desert Eagle handgun if Lara Croft is using it in the movie (sweet! a chick with a gun! I want one just like that! maybe it'll make me just like her/find a girl just like her)

Dude, seriously, I know we're geeks, but I, for one, do not yet need a gun to get girls to go out with me.

And I think it might be illegal...
: )

Re:What, like movies?

[glenrm]

Are you saying you are a troll paid by Kia?

Stormbringer

[Walrus99]

I found a way to completly skip commercials: READ A BOOK. I am currently rereading the Elric saga, but I didn't notice the part where Elric shares a coke with the god Arioch the first time I read it . . .

What is Good in Life

[Ranger]

Couch Potato: TiVo, what is good in life?

TiVo: To block commercials, delete them unseen, and hear the lamentation of their advertisers.

Couch Potato & TiVo: bwah-ha-ha-ha-ha! bwa-ha-hA-HA-HA!! BWAH-HA-HA-HA-HA!!!!

Re:Nope

[tigertiger]

Civil War Special - Lincoln delivers Gettisburg Address in GAP jeans.

No, he does it using a Powerpoint presentation [norvig.com].

Re:Nope

[the_consumer]

I know Levitra will help me throw a ball through a swinging tire.

9.1 percent OMFG!!!

[sootman]

Maybe they could just spend 9.1% less on shows? So someone like Seinfeld, who, at the end of his series, was making $1,000,000/week, would have to drop to $909,000/week? And the budget for Fear Factor could drop from $10.00/week to $9.09? Nope, you're right. Never gonna happen. TV is doomed. The parasite TiVo will kill the host.

Re:Nope

[Grishnakh]

According to network executives, if you watch a program without purchasing the maxi-pads that advertised on that program, you're violating your contract with the television network and basically stealing!

It doesn't matter if you're male; you still need to buy the maxi-pads.