iPhone Roundup 149
Some of you are tired of the blizzard of coverage the iPhone is getting, so this roundup of iPhone stories is running off the main page. First off, EMIce points out what seems to be plenty of prior art (as well as a booming research scene) on the multi-touch interface that Steve Jobs demo'ed, boasting of having "filed for over 200 patents." FastCompany has a profile of NYU researcher Jefferson Han and his killer demo of a multi-touch interface at TED. Next, Toreo asesino writes in with Microsoft's Steve Ballmer's take on the iPhone; the Microsoft CEO doesn't sound very impressed. And finally, an anonymous reader notes CNet's article on why the iPhone, once it's in the hands of consumers, may be the most muggable item of consumer electronics ever.
Re:Hiding the iPhone (Score:5, Interesting)
Honestly, the best way that I can think of to protect iPhone owners from mugging is for the GSM carriers to get to gether and share ESNs of stolen phones, and then simply black list them (this would have to be a group effort as unlocking the phone would get around each network blacklisting phones stolen from their customers).
I know Verizon will blacklist the ESN of a phone that has been reported stolen, and they don't have to share these numbers around, as there are only 2 CDMA carriers that I know of (can you unlock a phone between Sprint/Verizon?).
also, the incentive for the carriers is that with fewer stollen phones, they can sell more handsets.
Re:Hiding the iPhone (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Most muggable item? (Score:3, Interesting)
Also, remember the cost can be very high, as the cost of mugging someone is the chance of getting caught and going to jail. Obviously getting caught far outweighs the worth of the iPhone, however that cost is tempered down as it is only a possible ending, and the ocst is further adjusted up/down based on the effectiveness of the local police.
On the note of reporting the phone stolen.
Cingular does not kill ESNs if a phone is reported lost/stolen. Also, most contries now have laws requireing phones to be unlockable (even with out the laws it is not hard), and thus the blacklist would need to be shared amongst the GSM carriers.
Re:Not impressed (Score:2, Interesting)
We're easily blinded... by futility? How does that work? "Hey, check this thing out. It's sooo futile, there's no point to it whatsoever! Wow! I'm blind now, and I'll pay any price! That's how pointless I think this thing is."
What you probably meant to say was that people are easily blinded by something else, perhaps a good sales pitch, and that makes them overlook futility. That makes more sense. There, I fixed your flame. You're welcome.
A few random thoughts (Score:5, Interesting)
Success:
- Will it be a success? Yes. Is it pricey? Yes. Is it gorgeous? Yes. And the price will eventually drop, just like the iPod did. It's Apple's famous method: release a really nice, almost perfect product for a bunch of money, sell a bunch to the first batch of buyers; then, when that supply is exhausted, improve it, drop the price, sell again to the next round who weren't willing to buy the first time. Lather, rinse, repeat. (Note: don't look for a widescreen, touchscreen, iPod until MAYBE September for the 2007 Xmas season; more likely, you'll have to wait until Spring 2008. Apple won't let a nice iPod cannibalize sales they'll get to people who buy the iPhone MOSTLY because they want a widescreen iPod. Oh, and by the way--current iPods have 4:3 screens. (1.33:1.) All Apple's computers are 16:10. (1.6:1.) The iPhone, like the original PBG4, is 3:2. (1.5:1.) So: what shape should iTMS movies be?)
- BUT--the iPod wasn't a success just because it was pretty. It really is a better, easier-to-use MP3 player than anything else out there for most people. The iPhone will ONLY succeed if the touchscreen system works as well as Steve says it does. I can tell it'll be mostly great just by looking--a regular touchscreen could easily handle 90% of the single-finger action he demo'ed--but I'll have to see the keyboard in person to become a believer on that.
- will Apple work out a deal with Cingular to offer a reasonable data plan? No one will be happy with the Internet Communicator of the Future if it costs $100/month to do anything with. For this to really, really work, there has to be reasonably-fast, reasonably-priced data. If it becomes a situation of "Oh, I can't use Safari until I get to Starbucks or Panera" that will be a big buzzkill.
- will they meet their goals? They said they want to sell 10 million phones--have 1% of the market--in 18 months. (God, that sounds like so many WWW business plans I heard in 1995-97--"If we could just get 1% of all web users to visit our site...") That sounds good on the one hand, given that they want 1% of a billion phones, BUT--Cingular only has 60M customers. Is the iPhone so great that ONE SIXTH of Cingular's customer base will spend $500? If not, are that many people going to get out of contracts and switch carriers in the next 18 months? I'm not so sure. Like I said, I really think the iPhone will be a success, but their expectations are pretty high.
Other thoughts:
- no iChat! no iChat A/V! How LAME! Either a) it's part of the deal not to step on Cingular's toes by offering anything like VOIP, or b) it's waiting for Rev B. Unfortunately, my money's on A. Well, at least you can use the browser to access Meebo [meebo.com].
- Proximity sensor--nice. But I hope that's not one of their patents. My Canon XTi turns off the screen when you put it up to your face--and it already exists.
- Apple will need to add 'Cingular' and 'iPhone' to Leopard's spellcheck dictionary.
- I'll pick one up in a couple rev's just to have a decent browser. Despite having twice as many pixels as the iPhone, browsing on my Axim mostly sucks. [slashdot.org]
Easy Fix (Score:3, Interesting)
iPhone is just the beginning... (Score:5, Interesting)
The iPhone is just the beginning of a much larger revolution in computing, in fact probably the biggest revolution since the birth of the graphical user interface. Not sure what I mean? Look at the submitter's link to the TED demonstration, and also take a look at the Synaptics Onyx Concept [synaptics.com].
Put it this way... if you still haven't guessed where Jobs' head is right now, the iPhone with its arguably limited feature sets is a way of not showing your best work up front. In fact, Apple I think has something much bigger in mind... for which the iPhone is really just a loss leader.
When you see what multipoint capacitance sensors can do, it should become evident that Apple's probably already researching how to redefine the user interface of the home computer... and eliminate the mouse and physical keyboard entirely, but simultaneously give us a user interface far more advanced than a mere 2D touchscreen. A touchscreen tablet strips away some of the advantages of a keyboard and mouse, but a tablet PC with a multipoint capacitance sensor opens up new dimensions of desktop navigation and application control.
Put it another way... Have you seen the Pre-Crime computer in Minority Report? Now you've got some idea where Apple's research is very probably currently focused.
iPhone not meeting expectations, not living up to the hype? Pfeh... I guarantee you Steve Jobs and company are already thinking another five years ahead to the day when the desktop GUI framework will undergo the first systemic metamorphosis in 20 years.