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'Folding Phones Are the New 3D TV' (wired.com) 100

An anonymous reader shares an excerpt from Wired, written by Lauren Goode: Samsung's newest foldables are even more impressive than the folding models that came before them. (The company first started shipping foldable phones in 2019, after years of development.) And yet, folding phones are still the 3D TVs of the smartphone world: birthed with the intention of swiveling your head toward a product at a time when the market for that product has softened. They're technically complicated. They're expensive. And their usability depends a whole lot on the way content is displayed on them, which means manufacturers could nail all the tech specs and still must wait on software makers (or entertainment companies) to create stuff to fill these space-age screens. All this does not bode well for the future of foldable phones, though some analysts are more optimistic.

Back in the early 2010's, global TV shipments started slipping, as developed markets became saturated with flat-screen TVs. And as prices for LCD TVs sank, so did profits. So TV manufacturers like Sony, LG, and Samsung began hyping the next expensive upgrade: 3D televisions. We tech journalists marched around the annual CES in 3D glasses, hoping to catch a glimpse of a 3D TV that would change our minds about this gimmicky technology. We grew mildly nauseous. We waited for more content. Five years later, 3D TV was dead. At the end of the last decade, WIRED's Brian Barrett summed up the great 3D TV pitch as "what happens when smart people run out of ideas, the last gasp before aspiration gives way to commoditization."

I know: TVs and mobile phones are different beasts. Mobile phones have fundamentally altered the way we live. Billions of handsets have been sold. But about four years ago, global smartphone sales slowed. By 2019, consumers were holding on to their phones for a few extra months before splurging on an upgrade. As smartphones became more secure and reliable, running on desktop-grade chip systems and featuring cameras good enough to decimate the digital camera market, each new iteration of a phone seemed, well, iterative. Enter foldable displays, which are either a desperate gimmick or a genuine leap forward, depending on whom you ask. Or, like 3D TVs, maybe they're both.

Foldables were also supposed to be the ultimate on-the-go device, for road warriors and jet-setters and productivity gurus who want to "stay in the flow" at all times. As I've written before, it's not exactly the best time to beta test this concept, while some of our movements are limited. The context for foldables has changed in the short time since they became commercially available. Of course, that context could always change again. Foldables may be the next frontier in phones, or in tablets, or laptops, or all of the above. They could become commonplace, assumed, as boring as a solid inflexible brick. Maybe we'll manage our decentralized bank accounts on a creaky screen as we shoot into sub-orbital space. Or maybe we'll stare into the screens, two parts fused into one, and hope that the future is something more than this.
The biggest argument for foldables not being 3D TVs, as mentioned by research manager for IDC, Jitesh Ubrani, is the potential utility of foldables.

"Most people in the industry, and even many consumers, believe that ultimately there is just going to be one device you use, you know?" Ubrani says. "And this device will have the ability to function as a phone, as a PC, as a tablet. So where foldables can really drive the technology is by replacing three devices with one."
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'Folding Phones Are the New 3D TV'

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  • by unfortunateson ( 527551 ) on Monday August 16, 2021 @08:20PM (#61699035) Journal

    Phones have gotten bigger and bigger -- yes the phablets have mostly gone away, but the flagships are all 6", and when the Pixel 5 is considered a "small" phone there's something weird going on.

    My wife is looking for a replacement phone that will fit in her pants pocket -- very few do, most will stick out. This is, to a large degree, the fault of fashion designers.
    The smallest phone T-Mobile was showing under $500 in their store was the OnePlus Nord 200, and it's too big.

    The Galaxy Flip would be ideal, if it weren't over $1000. If this gets to be the standard, lots of people will buy them, just for portability.

    • by PPH ( 736903 )

      My wife is looking for a replacement phone that will fit in her pants pocket -- very few do, most will stick out. This is, to a large degree, the fault of fashion designers.

      Nah. Your wife just needs to put on a few pounds and get a new wardrobe.

      They say that a woman who gains a bit of weight as she ages tends to live longer than the men who point it out.

    • by antdude ( 79039 )

      This is why I prefer iPhone's 12 mini and 4S.

      • and yet, iPhone mini has apparently been the worst selling of all the 12 models.

        That seems strange to me though. While I personally want t a big screen phone I know several people who want small phones. Like one of my friends actually bought a first generation iPhone SE (the one in the 4/5 form factor) a few months back just to get a small phone that was still usable.

        • by antdude ( 79039 )

          Your friend should had gotten the 2nd SE!

        • by flex941 ( 521675 )
          I want small phone! I want new one with modern chipset etc! But not 12 mini and 4S. Not Apple. Never. Ever. So I'm stuck with Sony XZ1 Compact, newest small phone (ok, maybe XZ2 Compact fits the bill too) that is available on the (now after-)market.
    • Actually, I'm not sure sure it's the fashion designers.

      I too have the same requirement, and my current 6.5" phone is at the very edge of acceptable - it'll just about fit in my jeans pocket, but I can't bend my leg as easily with it there. It's okay for walking, but sitting down is less than ideal, and any other contortions are all but impossible. I'd love a 5" phone again.

      I also think a "flip" would be ideal - although it wants to be more durable than a regular flat phone, not less. I'm also not sold on th

    • You actually hit on the problem that foldable phones have in common with 3D TVs: both were intended as ways for manufacturers to charge premium prices, instead of being a way to meet a consumer demand.

      Yes, they think there is consumer demand, but they are not doing this because there is an unmet consumer demand. They are doing it as a gimmick to charge more. That rarely works in the long run. Unfortunately for them, the consumer segment interested in this is not, for the most part, those willing to pay
  • I don't know, man (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Lisandro ( 799651 ) on Monday August 16, 2021 @08:30PM (#61699069)

    I couldn't care less about the big Samsung foldable phones - i don't want a tablet.

    But thew Z Flip has me genuinely considering investing in a new phone well before i was planning to. I dig the features, the Pixel 2 Panda-inspired aesthetics and, most of all, the form factor. Finally a phone i can comfortably operate with a single hand, and carry on a small pocket to boot.

    If foldable clam shell phones go down in price i can totally see them becoming a thing.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      The larger foldables are interesting to me, or at least they will be when the prices come down.

      I like large phones and being able to carry an even larger one folded up would be great. Just strip out the unnecessary stuff, the 9 cameras, and just a small notification/selfie outside screen.

    • Before you get too excited, there are tons of zflip phones that had the "glass" cracked at the seam from regular use. Unless they fixed that in this iteration, I won't get my hopes up.
      • Yeah, durability is the only thing keeping me on the fence. Battery life is also a big question mark.

        I'm using a Pixel 5 these days, mostly because it is small, feature packed, rugged, and the battery lasts forever on it.

  • by awwshit ( 6214476 ) on Monday August 16, 2021 @08:38PM (#61699079)

    > Most people in the industry, and even many consumers, believe that ultimately there is just going to be one device you use ... this device will have the ability to function as a phone, as a PC, as a tablet.

    Right, so what you need is something that will function well as a mobile (whatever that means for you, for me it means fits in my pocket without breaking or being uncomfortable), and then different kinds of docks, like a tablet format, a KVM interface, the entertainment system in my car is mostly a dock, etc.

    • I’m not so sure about that. People don’t want to carry their “personal computer” around, whether it’s a phone, a tablet or a small compute module that fits into phones, tablets and desktop docks. They don’t even necessarily want all of those to run on the same OS or even UI. Mostly, people want access to their data, and they want to be connected when they are on the go. The Cloud and ubiquitous WiFi / 4G access have mostly solved those problems.
      • >People don’t want to carry their “personal computer” around, whether it’s a phone, a tablet or a small compute module that fits into phones, tablets and desktop docks.
        Huh? Billions of people carrying smart phones in their pockets is not an example of the opposite? What do you think a smart phone is, if not a “personal computer”?
    • As soon as you solved the interface problem, I'm game. Until then, I sure as fuck don't want to work on a phone where the, well, let's call it a "keyboard", shares real estate with the screen.

    • by AmiMoJo ( 196126 )

      You can do all that already with a Galaxy Fold. Samsung has it's Dex desktop mode and the wireless video/input stuff is already there for things like Android Auto.

  • It wouldn't be bad to have a flip-phone that can end a call with a satisfying physical close action. However, the screens have to be made out of a thin plastic, and we finally have smartphones well made enough that they can take most indignities without scratches or shatters, even without a case. I'm not really looking forward to a piece of sand doing a number on a screen if it winds its way there while the phone is closed.

    I think they are a nice option to have... since slider phones with hardware keyboar

  • Most people in the industry, and even many consumers, believe that ultimately there is just going to be one device you use, you know?

    I don't know, actually, whether most people believe that, but if it does happen it probably won't be a foldable phone.

    What's a lot more likely is a smaller phone with a really good accessory system, so people who want to add a bigger display, keyboard, mouse, camera, etc. can do it seamlessly, adding/removing components on demand, carrying it around with permanently attached

    • I don't know, actually, whether most people believe that, but if it does happen it probably won't be a foldable phone.

      It will not be in the form factor of a non0foldable phone either.

      These are just far too small to replace other computing devices. The display is small. The keyboard is small. The audio is small. The battery life is small. Small.

      Small is good, for some things. Nobody wants a big phone!

      But when I need to do a lot of typing, I need a much fuller sized keyboard. Now, of course I can get that external keyboard, but its 7x the size of the phone! So whats the phone for then? The keyboard can much more comfo

      • Nobody wants a big phone!

        Actually, there are a LOT of us out here with bad eyes that pretty much need a big phone in order to be able to see and use it.

  • I'm waiting for a cellphone that works in my basement.
  • Imagine a sheet of paper the size of the tablet you want to use. Now fold it to the size of a phone you want to use. Now imagine actually using it. It would SUUUUCK! How many hinges can a device have and still be usable? I can see 1 working, but 2? 3?...sounds pretty flimsy + you'd have a phone battery powering a tablet. You'd need a lot more than 1 fold to get a tablet competitor.

    It's a bad idea from the start. What do we like about tablets? Sturdy frame, huge battery, lots of power, reasonably priced.

    What do we like in a phone? portable, sturdy, thin, easy to slide in & out of our pocket.

    Even just 1 fold means you get a flimsy phone with nearly twice the thickness and most cases stop working. Now this crappy, failure-prone, delicate device is priced more than a flagship phone. Yup...it's definitely the 3D TV of phones.

    I am skeptical a lot of people are looking at their ipads and saying....man, I wish this thing folded in half, cost 5x as much, and was 10x as likely to stop working.
    • Yup...it's definitely the 3D TV of phones.

      Yes, but what If we made a 3D folding phone? That’s gotta be the next big thing!

      • Yes, but what If we made a 3D folding phone? That’s gotta be the next big thing!

        You're not thinking big enough. What if we made a 3D folding TV?!?

    • Imagine a sheet of paper the size of the tablet you want to use. Now fold it to the size of a phone you want to use. Now imagine actually using it.

      I'm imagining something the size of a Kindle and a result being smaller than the phone I currently have. I don't know where your imagination is taking you but this sounds to me like an ideal device.

      The only thing wrong with it right now is the price. Not every tablet needs to be the size of a TV and not ever phone needs to be the size of the a Nokia 8210

      What do we like about tablets? Sturdy frame, huge battery, lots of power, reasonably priced.

      Errr speak for yourself. What do you need power for in a tablet? Do you read the morning news in 3D VR or something? Same with a sturdy frame, that's only i

      • By flimsy I'm pretty sure he's referring to the need for complex folding mechanisms requiring microscopic parts. But I'm not the physics genius you clearly are, so maybe I'm wrong.

      • Errr speak for yourself. What do you need power for in a tablet? Do you read the morning news in 3D VR or something? Same with a sturdy frame, that's only important if its so big I could potentially damage it.

        It takes a more powerful CPU/GPU to power the higher resolution display. I thought that would be obvious. Haven't you ever upgraded a monitor and noticed how much slower even basic web browsing becomes? I have a GTX 3060 and modern AMD Ryzen and a bunch of news web pages overload it and stall on a 4k display. The nice thing about an ipad is how sharp the display is and how smoothly you can scroll or just open an app. Try out a friend's iPad pro if you don't have one and you'll see what I mean. It's ve

  • I am guessing this would live at the Gartner Hype Cycle [gartner.com] "Peak of Inflated Expectation". Beware the "Trough of Disillusionment"...

    From the Gartner website:
    • Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces a number of success stories — often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not.
    • Trough of Disillusionment: Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the su
  • Curious to see how functional it is... one cool piece of nostalgia for sure...
  • by ayesnymous ( 3665205 ) on Monday August 16, 2021 @10:56PM (#61699425)
    they will flop and Samsung will wish they never sold them.
    • Given how well the previous generation has sold despite the ludicrous price and despite the negative press and despite the huge issues with reliability that led to a delay in release I wouldn't bet more than a dollar on that statement.

  • by argStyopa ( 232550 ) on Monday August 16, 2021 @11:03PM (#61699447) Journal

    Look, I get it.
    As marketers and merchanteers, it is your metier to constantly try to enthuse us about the Next Cool Thing(tm).

    But - like 3d TV, which is a great analogy - this one is so patently stupid even the gullible masses are like "what? why?"

    Going to replace my TV or my pad? Maybe...but for less money, and with far fewer points of obvious failure...I'll just hold that phone with its ultrasharp, crystal clear display and ever-faster processor just that couple of inches nearer to my face. Voila, it's the same size profile as my 67" OLED on the wall.

    And let me make this clear: it. will. never. replace. my. computer. Got that?
    Because computers aren't just about the screen. Computers, as a tool for both work and entertainment, are about their human interface and input devices. If in some weird universe I couldn't have a monitor, again, I'd just use my single pane non-foldable PHONE on a stand a few inches from my eyes, as long as I could have a keyboard and a mouse, I could work just fine.

    Again, your extra what, 3" of screen real estate simply brings nothing to offset the cost and point-of-failure.

    • I have a bit different view.

      Current foldables are a bit questionable as they are still pretty thick folded, but as someone who originally thought that an iPad was a toy that I would never use.. until I got one and noticed how mcuch I actually use it in preference to the phone.

      Basially the newest normal phones start to be almost "too thin" in some cases for a good grip, I can see a future where the folding one would olny be "quite thick" not "too thick" and then.. then the game is on, spcially if the price i

  • 3D foldable phones that are also TVs?
  • First gen phones will only fold one way, each gen will add a fold. And by 10th gen we'll have a 1 inch cube that folds out into a 1000 inch screen.

  • Can't wait for them to impress me in green [youtube.com]
  • ...nothing else.

    They did it to show that the folding oled screens are now mature enough to withstand the abuse.
    Expect a LOT of oled products to come in all shapes from now on, it's not the foldable phone, that was just a tech demo.

    If you want to know the future, a small contact lens that fits over your eye, with a screen projector, now that's something you'd use. Instant monitor at any size, anywhere you are, no wearables needed, that's where the future is, but it ain't now - perhaps in 20 years, but it'll

  • Folding phones are a bad idea: most of the time you are carrying the weight of two cell phones when you only need to use one.

    Dual screens on the other hand is a good use case. When you're examining documents that are too small for a mobile screen, the possibility to expand your real state on demand supports a real need. Having a small lightweight device most of the time, but carrying an inexpensive second device in your bag that you can pull out when needed to join them, can be a real solution. (LG commerci

  • A phone that is less than 5" when folded, but expands to over 8" when unfolded would be cool. That would give you the best of both worlds - phone and tablet. The thing is, as currently implemented by Samsung, you get the worst of both worlds, and a premium price.

    If they carry on the way they are going, folding phones will be dead in a few years time. But, they don't have to carry on the way they are going.

  • I really need to replace my PC with a phone. Please design a phone that unfolds into a 24" screen. No, wait, two 24" screens.

  • ...to create stuff to fill these space-age screens

    The space age was the 60's-80's. We've been in the information age for 30 years and arguably we're currently in the smartphone age. If it's truly space-age, why isn't it an analogue CRT?

  • Someone will release a relatively seamless hinged design and the flip phone will dominate again.
  • Yeah I'm sure it looks great the first time you whip it out but the shitty plastic screen will warp, crease and scratch even with normal use. Oh they it cost eleventy-stupid amounts of cash.
  • Half of people loved 3D and half hate it. It all depends on the feel of it upon the eyes. Additionally, the quality of the content being a big influence as well.

    But one of the major reasons 3DTVs failed was because of how content was marketed. A new movie would get released to DVD/Blu-Ray. In theory, the 3D versions were priced $5-$10 more than the standard versions. However, in practice, this was far from the case. The 3D versions would see a $5-$15 markup on the MSRP. However, few of us were purchasi

    • Foldable phones will fail for a similar reason. Aside from the obvious technical issues pointed out by others (reliability of hinges, screen cracking/breaking), the larger screen provided by the foldable phone will require app developers to retool their applications to take advantage of the extra real estate. With such little consumer interest in these devices, who would take the time to do that? Existing apps will have to be scaled and will look like garbage. Put simply, the "content" (apps) won't be there

      • Why are developers making apps that aren't resolution independent to begin with?

        I've been shocked as phone screen sizes have shifted, like the iPhone "Plus" sizes and apps were basically getting zoomed like it was 1988. I figured resolution-independent raster everything would be in use with the exception of specific bitmaps.

        Variation in screen size ought not be a big deal for developers, they should already be writing apps to be as resolution independent as possible.

        • The business I work for switched to a new time card system a few years back. The first thing I noticed was that whoever designed the UI obviously had a very wide monitor, because some pages weren't designed to stretch or shrink in any meaningful way to fit the resolution of different monitors. Most monitors we had were too narrow and so you ended up with your time card stretching off the side of the screen and had to use a side scroll. When I pointed out this obvious short coming and the easy fix, eliminati

    • Go to Audible.com and look at audiobook prices. They range from $25 and up, want to listen to Stephen King's "The Stand", that'll cost you $63.

      Audible is even weirder, since that $63 is basically the sticker price, but almost no-one pays it. For $15 a month you get credit good for any book of your choice(Including The Stand). For 99% of books it is cheaper to join their club, pay for 1 month, and cancel afterwards, and keep the book. If you run out of credits, you can wait a month or buy 3 more for $45, or as a "member" you can pay 20% off the sticker price. It is like a tiered used-car-dealership

  • 3D TV was dirty-cheap for the manufacturers to offer. It was extremely simple technology. It was a regular TV with different software and _tiny_ bit of (cheap) extra hardware. Manufacturers were hoping consumers would pay a premium for it. They did not. Manufacturers were not out of ideas for product improvement. They could make the sets bigger, make the color better, add resolution, increase framerate, and add motion smoothing...The exact stuff we are seeing today. The problem for manufacturers was that un

Waste not, get your budget cut next year.

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