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Netflix's Big Bet on Original Shows Finally Seen Paying Off (reuters.com) 90

Posted by msmash from the original-content dept.
Netflix shares jumped as much as 20 percent on Tuesday, after the company added 50 percent more subscribers than expected in the third quarter. Reuters adds: At least 10 brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and RBC Capital Markets, raised their price targets on the stock, praising the company's focus on developing original content. The video streaming company also said it was getting ready to spend $6 billion on content next year, up $1 billion from 2016. "The benefits of Netflix-produced original content including attractive economics and greater control are clear and we believe returns on original spend are high," J.P. Morgan Securities analyst Doug Anmuth said in a research note. Strong subscriber additions after two quarters of disappointing growth helped Netflix post a 31.7 percent jump in third-quarter revenue. Anmuth said he believed Netflix was on track toward 60 million plus subscribers in the United States and about 100 million internationally by 2020.A study by IHS Markit this month noted that both Netflix and Amazon are challenging major networks by upping spending on original shows. The study noted that Amazon and Netflix both had doubled spending on new shows in the last two years. Amazon dropped $1.22 billion in 2013 and spent $2.67 billion in 2015. Netflix's spending on original content rose from $2.38 billion to $4.91 billion over the same period.
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Netflix's Big Bet on Original Shows Finally Seen Paying Off More

Netflix's Big Bet on Original Shows Finally Seen Paying Off

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  • Luke Cage and Daredevil Season 2 were awesome (Score:5, Insightful)

    by ShooterNeo ( 555040 ) on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @12:00PM (#53101107)

    I subscribed to Netflix just to watch Luke Cage the moment it released instead of having to wait to pirate it. It was awesome. Stranger Things was awesome.

    To be quite frank, while Netflix does have more misses than hits as far as original content, the hits they DO have are incredible. Directly comparable in entertainment value to a decent HBO show. (which is no surprise if they spent about as much money as HBO spends and they have about as talented a crew. Yes, Game of Thrones is still better than anything Netflix has, but GoT is arguably the biggest and flashiest television show in the world.)

    Anyways, this is great news. Nothing to whine about. Netflix is a far better concept than ad supported TV. You can watch anything they have whenever you want. You pay a very paltry amount of money (9 bucks a month!) and get access to it all. No intrusive ads. The content is racier and more violent at times than anything advertisers would be comfortable with, or the moralizers who police broadcast TV would allow. They do lots of original ideas instead of rehashing the same cop/lawyer/doctor/reality shows that conventional network TV is rife with.

    For nerds, Netflix is a representative of a golden age of content. This is what we all wanted on slashdot 15 years ago.

    • Re:Luke Cage and Daredevil Season 2 were awesome (Score:4, Insightful)

      by Rinikusu ( 28164 ) on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @12:19PM (#53101297)

      Not only that, but they don't have to worry about pesky advertisers complaining about the content, nor do they have to be overly concerned about someone saying "fuck," etc. It's pretty refreshing to see TV-style episodic programming that isn't trying to spoonfeed us as if we're all puritanical morons.

    • > instead of having to wait to pirate it.

      You could not wait an hour?

      • My ISP passes on strike letters from monitored torrents, so I have to use alternate methods that are much slower.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by kuzb ( 724081 )
      This [youtube.com] is how I see Luke Cage as a show. Even still, netflix is pretty awesome for going the extra mile on their original programming.
  • Comment removed based on user account deletion
  • Not all of the "Netflix Original" shows are original. They'll call shows that they picked up for a season or two a "Netflix Original". And most of their real original shows are garbage. People don't know any better because most other shows these days are garbage too.

    • Re: (Score:2)

      by AvitarX ( 172628 )

      From what I seem they'll also call shows they have exclusive regional distribution a Netflix show too.

      I think they have a pretty good track record on their original originals too though (The Marvel shows, Master of None, House of Cards are all pretty decent).

  • The whole point of getting a Netflix account was to have access to all those shows and movies that Netflix did not make. So the less original content they have the less relevant it is.

    • That's true, but I don't see how it could've gone otherwise once the other big players realized there was money to be made. You used to be able to stream CBS for free, but not they've got subscription. I'm not sure why I would pay to stream what I can get with the antenna for free... no time shifting, I guess, but what little I watch on CBS isn't very serialized. When we had HBO Now to watch GoT I was interested in seeing what movies they had, but it was rather poorly populated. Better worth the money t

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Anonymous Coward

      The market for content has changed dramatically since NF started, and that's a large part due to NF. That model doesn't work anymore, so NF is evolving and the best measure of how well they are adjusting is subscriptions.

      If the old NF existed today, monthly subscription would be much much higher, and you'd be complaining about that.

    • When the third party content cost approaches parity with Netflix original, we should see more come into play. For now, it seems to help subsidize a lot of foreign content, which may be good for the world.
  • Seems like speculation not fact that the reason people are subscribing for original content, I don't actually know anyone who uses Netflix for original content. Myself included, for me there really have not been any series that have been worth watching.

    • It's entirely anecdotal, but I re-subscribed to Netflix for the original content (Bojack Horseman, to be specific).

      I've said it elsewhere, but it's perfectly fine if the shows that Netflix puts out aren't for someone. Luckily other streaming companies are finally starting to do the follow suit, giving people options. What's impressed me with Netflix is the range of shows they currently offer. Besides their award-winners, they've got a broad variety of documentaries, anime, even old fashioned sitcoms. I'

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by dwywit ( 1109409 )

        It's almost like - a service that offers a mix of originals and re-runs, some that appeals to you and some that appeals to me, at a reasonable price, that isn't tied into internet or other subscriptions, is actually successful - who'da thunk it?

    • Re: (Score:1)

      by Anonymous Coward

      I watch original content almost exclusively. I probably would not keep my subscription if not for that. Many people I know watch the original content. I think you are just assuming everyone is like you.

      Anyhow, if you think NF is creating all this content when it is not a big draw, you are fooling yourself.

  • The problem with original content, from anyone, is that, for the most part, such original content will suck to high heaven. For each hit like, say, Cheers, there are hundreds of flops that, justly, remain in oblivion. I am all for new shows and movies - but I want access to classic hits. Complete access, not this garbage whereby things appear and disappear more or less randomly. Until this happens, piracy will carry on rampant.

    • The problem with original content, from anyone, is that, for the most part, such original content will suck to high heaven. For each hit like, say, Cheers, there are hundreds of flops that, justly, remain in oblivion. I am all for new shows and movies - but I want access to classic hits. Complete access, not this garbage whereby things appear and disappear more or less randomly. Until this happens, piracy will carry on rampant.

      But you are not everybody and most people do not want to watch old stuff over and over again. Most of the Netflix original content ranges from excellent to pretty OK and my only response to the idea of them making more of it is that it can't happen fast enough and the same goes for every other similar service out there. The thing that is currently holding up these streaming services is, as you point out, the tangled up cluster-fuck of a legal spiderweb that is visual media licensing. Some licensing agreemen

    • The problem with original content, from anyone, is that, for the most part, such original content will suck to high heaven.

      While that is true and Netflix is not immune, Netflix seems to somehow have a better hit rate than the accepted "90% of everything is crap quote" figure.

      Plus on Netflix with a whole season released at once, you can evaluate if the whole thing is worth getting into and not judge if you will spend time watching an episode at a time hoping for the best in the future... a terrible or awesom

    • It does not matter how many flops they get. You only need one show that you own exclusive rights to that everybody wants to watch.

      • Re: (Score:1)

        by AvitarX ( 172628 )

        or ten shows that different 10%s want to watch.

        That was HBOs model, not to make shows with broad appeal, but to make shows that had narrower "must see" appeal.

        The Sapranos (picked because I'm going with guessing it was the most watched premium show) had half the viewers as The Big Bang Theory, but people paid to watch it, while The Big Bang Theory would much easier be substituted for another random comedy by its fans (I suspect), but it has double the viewers. Both the Sapranos and Sex in the City had limit

  • Mascots was insanely funny... (Score:4, Insightful)

    by frank_adrian314159 ( 469671 ) on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @12:17PM (#53101281) Homepage

    I am glad that Netflix is funding the creation of this stuff. They are giving the cable channels a run for their money, if not yet the main-line studios. On the other hand, they've had some shows that were definitely "acquired taste" sorts of things, too (Pompidou, I'm looking at you). I guess they're still at the "throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks" stage. But at least a good deal of it is watchable and a few things are quite good.

    • I am glad that Netflix is funding the creation of this stuff.

      Most of my TV watching is with my very young children, and they LOVE the original Netflix children's shows (Dinotrucks, Puss & Boots, and others I can't recall off the top of my head).

      • Re: (Score:2)

        by sad_ ( 7868 )

        Indeed, and soon there will be 'Skylanders', they are already going nuts about it!

  • Stranger Things is a major reason why (Score:3)

    by chispito ( 1870390 ) on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @12:27PM (#53101393)
    Come for the Stranger Things, stay for everything else.

    • What I love about Stranger Things is that when I watched it with my daughter, and we're watching the opening scene in the basement with the kids eating pizza and playing D&D, I turned to her and said, "That was me and my friends in 1983".

  • "Finally"?? (Score:3)

    by SuperKendall ( 25149 ) on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @12:38PM (#53101531)

    It's been paying off all along, right from the star with House of Cards. Not all of them along the way were winners (I despised Sense8) but Netflix has had winners often enough that staying with them was never a question, while other services I've subscribed to have come and gone...

    At this point Netflix has all by themselves a pretty compelling library of content other services will not have, enough that any new subscriber would have reason enough to stay with Netflix for a year or more just to catch up. Add the fact that they often have really good shows and there's lots of reason to stay with them, even as the catalog of content from other companies churns...

    Not mentioned is how crafty Netflix has been in picking up great TV shows other networks have been too stupid to see the value of (like Longmire) and continuing to make new seasons... we should all laud Netflix for being a safety net for good shows. I'm betting they would have taken up Firefly if it had been aired today with the same mistakes...

    • Personally, liked Sense8, but to each his own. House of cards was an expensive series to produce, but it pays dividends now with justifying the strategy.

      What I dislike is that some series just don't last. I really got into Straights or whatever it was called, but it only made it a season or two. Common problem; hope Netflix continues to support the long tail.

  • Two star content? (Score:3)

    by scorp1us ( 235526 ) on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @01:27PM (#53101969) Journal

    I've not been watching much of Netflix anymore, and I'm about to cancel. Everytime I open the app, I see all this exclusive content rated 2 stars. And I've watched some of it, and it is indeed 2-star content. There's so much of it, I want a star filter, but I think that would eliminate half their library.

    Some of their stuff is good, but they lost Doctor Who to Amazon, and their top rated movie selection is dwindling. It's becoming a B-movie haven.
    In fact writing this has convinced me to cancel.

  • Best use of your Entertainment $ out there (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @01:45PM (#53102167)

    7 to 8 years ago or so I spent lots of $ on blu ray copies of some of my favorite shows. I remember spending what seems like a fairly obscene amount of $ on the BattleStar Galactica box set. That one purchase alone would pay for 2 YEARS of Netflix these days. Considering all the great netflix content... the licensed material is just cake. For the last year I can't say there has been one month I haven't had at least one great show to binge. We got a couple good Netflix movies... at least one of them was of fully legit award winning quality.

    I know people like to pick on specific shows. They have had hits like Stranger things that have wide appeal, and others that have a much narrower viewership. I hope Netflix never ever ever goes the route that has killed quality with the major networks. Netflix needs to continue producing the odd niche content without a lot of care for the viewership numbers.The networks concerned themselves so much with demo numbers that they killed creativity completely and we ended up with years of reality tv and the same cop/lawyer/friends shows repeated 1000 times each. A show like Stranger Things wasn't expected to be a massive hit, no way during production any one at Netflix thought yes this one show is going to be a major part of our third quarter 20%+ stock surge. Netflix needs to keep going with the scatter gun... find young artists and fund them. I am glad the stranger things bump happened, it should keep us in good new shows for a few more years... it should have convinced them that spending money on talented no bodies is a better option then dropping millions on known hacks like Sandler. Not that their isn't a place for that type of content as well. For Netflix though... funding the unknowns and having 3-4 hit out of left field shows every year will push the Netflix brand and drive down the cost of getting "name" people to work on their stuff. At this point I'm sure people are wanting to work for netflix. HBO was the first "network" that movie stars viewed as safe to work with... I would say many are looking at Netflix the same way now. Winona Ryder won't be the last carer revived by a Netflix original.

    • The big advantage of the content Netflix itself produces, or at least buys outright, is that it can show it in all the countries it is available in. So while a specific show, like the Marvel series, may be considered "niche" when one looks at one single market, the viewership in all markets for even a niche show can be substantial.

  • Am finding the netflix originals and their selections so much better than the network stuff, maybe comparable to BBC. I like how they seem less afraid to take editorial risks to investigate new markets.

    That said, still see plenty of unexploited opportunity streaming direct-to-consumer though, in niches that Netflix probably wont choose to go as they too become bigger.

    Ex: I sub to NHL and would gladly subscribe to other sports channels like golf channel.
    Ex: huge potential in independant/art/amateur scenes, p

  • Amazing: Netflix and Amazon each spend more on content than the GDP of Belize.

  • Rather than a content delivery service.

    They have become one of the cable channels. Since their foreign content is only leased tempoarily it seems to me they will inevitably drop their streaming service/subscription model and go directly to a la cart show subscriptions. Maybe new episodes cost a dollar to watch. Old series 25 cents for a couple hours.

    Then that will evolve with Netflix breaking off into two or more companies. One a delivery ecosystem; others the new cable production channels.

    Interestingly I t

  • Well it is things like the new Star Trek TV show coming out by CBS that ticks people off. I live in Canada.

    It is to be available on Netflix internationally. However:
    In the US, it will only be available on CBS and their own home brew streaming service.
    In Canada up until people got angry it just wasn't available because of licencing BS. Now it is going to be on the Bell Space channel if you have cable AND have access to that specific channel.

    I have cable and subscribe to the Space channel so for me I don't mu

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