Data Analysts Attempt To Predict World's Largest Music Vote, Again 41
littlekorea writes "Data analysts in the U.S. and Australia have come up with alternative means to predict the world's largest music vote, Triple J's Hottest 100. The Warmest 100 was close to spot on last year after analysts mined data from social posts auto-generated during the voting process. This year, with that avenue shut off, they relied on data extracted using the Instagram API, among others, and hope to achieve similar results."
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Or watch the European Song Contest, which is about the same thing.
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Doesnt matter.
The way to predict the winning artists is simply; take note of which artists are recieving the advertising money and promotion from the industry.
Since people will naturally gravitate to whatever they are told is good, repeatedly and exposed to it on the radio, the song becomes good, in spite of any lack of talent or depth. When the song is properly fattened on money and attention, it is slain, dried and sprinkled on shit, then served to the public who eat it and lick the plate. People are moro
Normally makes sense, but ... (Score:3)
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Doesn't matter. Top 10, 40, 100 playlists are prepackaged and leased by stations through services licensed by the RIAA.
If it's an oldies or college station, moot point. The world is FULL of top hit list stations. This makes up the bulk of radio, unless you have mostly AM stations in your area.
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http://www.crikey.com.au/?p=42... [crikey.com.au]
From the article:
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1) Macklemore & Ryan Lewis - Thrift Shop {ft. Wanz}
2) Of Monsters And Men - Little Talks
3) alt-J - Breezeblocks
4) Flume - Holdin On
5) Mumford & Sons - I Will Wait
Not really a particularly commercial lineup, and that's just the top five.
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No idea who the industry pushes in the rest of the world.
It used to be fun to keep track, but it's all the same. If an artist lends themselves to easy promotion, they are chosen over a more talented artist that isn't so intuitive to sell. It's all about how MUCH product you can stuff through the pipes, not the quality of the product. People will buy what they're told, so focus on profit instead. THAT is where the industrys head is.
Approximately 10% of the votes (Score:5, Informative)
There were fewer than 200,000 votes cast last year - they've sampled close to 10% of the actual votes, so I'm sure they'll have a reasonable approximation of the final result...
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That doesn't sound right. There were 1.26 million votes cast in 2011 and 1.4 million votes cast this year (source: the official Hottest 100 webpage and Wikipedia). I can't find last year's figures but they would be somewhere in that range.
Fairly impressive for a country with a population of ~23M.
Re:Approximately 10% of the votes (Score:5, Informative)
That doesn't sound right.
It depends whether you consider a "vote" to be a song choice, or a person who voted.
Voters submit a list of their favourite handful of songs, they don't pick one. Triple J usually picks the number of song submissions, not the number of people who voted, since it's the songs themselves that they count.
Fairly impressive for a country with a population of ~23M.
A lot of the votes aren't by australians. Triple J streams worldwide for free and they have extremely good taste in music. Their charter requires, by law, that they do not have any ads except to promote music and culture, which means they promote music and festivals that they think are interesting, but don't collect any revenue for it.
So there are plenty of people around the world who tune in.
The event is several hours long, and it takes place on a national public holiday when everyone is off work. I've been invited to more than one party, to spend the whole day listening to music, drinking beer, eating bad food and trying to find some shade and/or water (bloody hot here this time of year!).
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A lot of the votes aren't by australians. Triple J streams worldwide for free and they have extremely good taste in music. Their charter requires, by law, that they do not have any ads except to promote music and culture, which means they promote music and festivals that they think are interesting, but don't collect any revenue for it.
They also used to have a much more comprehensive current affairs programs and I fear they have lost much. Though, provisions in the AUS-USA fta may have an influence on this. However I enjoy the music and they are pretty good at that, though I do miss the drum promotions - some were pretty funny.
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Parent poster here.
Good point - having never voted myself I wasn't aware that there are multiple votes per person, so that makes sense now.
But I do know about JJJ and their worldwide audience ... because I am one. I'm Australian but live overseas and I'll be tuning in for the countdown :)
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Yeah, I never knew myself. When I looked for the stats from last year, I found this article, claiming 187,975 voters casting 1,516,765 votes [fasterlouder.com.au]. Since I didn't know which number would reflect what they were collecting, I looked at #hottest100 on twitter to see what kind of images people were sharing. The ones I found looked like http://instagram.com/p/jX3m6pMTsy/ [instagram.com], https://twitter.com/andrewyesterday/status/424445352557547520/ [twitter.com], and https://twitter.com/Natalia_Cooper9/status/424770515027623936/ [twitter.com], so I assumed the
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What news! (Score:2)
So wait... you're saying that when you look at what people are posting on the internet... you can tell what their opinions are on something? NO WAY!!!!! -_- How is this "predictive" by any definition? We've known for awhile that if you get a sample size of maybe 1-3% of a group... you can predict the distribution with a good degree of accuracy. There's nothing special about this slashvertisement.
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Most people who vote for the Hottest 100 do not post stuff on the internet, so the statisticians will need to account for and attempt to remove the bias towards the style of music people who are active online prefer. That's not easy.
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Yes, nothing's more destructive to democracy than people knowing the outcome of an election.
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Yes, nothing's more destructive to democracy than people knowing the outcome of an election.
Quite so. You see, if the predicted result is not right, corrective actions [1] are applied. Repeat until certainlty hits required treshold.
[1] Concentration_of_media_ownership [wikipedia.org]
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Yes, that's not surprising as elections aren't very democratic:
It is accepted as democratic when public offices are allocated by lot; and as oligarchic when they are filled by election. -- Aristotle
Re: Winner! (Score:2)
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Of all the songs to pick, you choose the one that ushered in the era of the "music video"? :/
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Given the kind of music Triple-J plays (and the kind of people who are likely listen to it instead of the mainstream commercial stations) I highly doubt any of the Top 100 winners are going to be manufactured mass-marked over-hyped pop crap.
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Given the kind of music Triple-J plays (and the kind of people who are likely listen to it instead of the mainstream commercial stations) I highly doubt any of the Top 100 winners are going to be manufactured mass-marked over-hyped pop crap.
'any of the Top 100 winners' seriously? from the 2012 list: 1 Thrift Shop - Macklemore and Ryan Lewis featuring Wanz After that I didn't even bother to further inspect the list. If that isn't manufactured mass-marked over-hyped pop crap, I don't exactly know what is.
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Triple J went mainstream a few decades ago. It's still mass marketed over hyped pop crap, but just more oriented at the 30 somethings.
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If you think Triple J is "mainstream" you should really have a listen to what some of the other stations are playing. The typical distribution in Australian cities are a classical station, a country station, one or two family radio stations playing 90s pop hits, a rock station which seems to have guns and roses and cold chisel on repeat, and then 5 other stations who play nothing but modern pop/rock/techno.
Yes Triple J does play some of the stuff the other stations do, but the key difference is they will ty
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I do watch Rage from time to time, generally the Friday night edition since that's when the new musicians are given a chance. Unearthed would be about the only time I'd be interested in Triple J, but that's mostly because I find radio friendly pop / rock to be like nails down a chalkboard.
While Triple J is not as mainstream as Triple M / etc (so awful!) it is still a pretty mainstream radio station. You just have to see what songs get into the hottest 100 every year. I recall listening to it a bit before le
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While true you can't judge the Triple J by the hottest 100. Anyone can vote regardless of what station they listen to, hence more popish music ends up getting up to the top. My girlfriend is like that. Spends all day listening to Nova and voted a lot of pop crap into the Hottest 100, likely just to annoy me. But it does skew the results.